Yeah, ushering in HTML 5 and letting Flash become extinct is clearly Apple's strategy.
There is a *reason* Apple now prefers this approach, and its name is Adobe. If Adobe would fix flash, Apple would probably acquiesce (though they would still fight for HTML5 adoption, because its the right thing to do). But this would require Adobe to do something for Apple that they haven't done in almost a decade: get serious when it comes to the Mac platform.
Adobe has made noises like they're going to fix Flash for years and years, but they never do (echoes of Microsoft!). I'm hopeful they got the message when the iPhone became a massive hit without them, but I'm also a little doubtful given some of their recent defensiveness.
If Adobe will get off their behinds and FIX Flash (I mean, when *Firefox* tells you they're stripping it out because it degrades the performance of the browser to unacceptable levels, that tells me I'm not imagining things), make it less buggy and bring its performance to par on all platforms, then I will (and I think Apple would) be glad to have them (and everyone on all platforms would benefit). Till then, Apple will look to find something else to fill the void. And believe me, MS and other companies will be delighted to help them.
If I were Adobe, I'd be nervous. And I would put the Flash team on high alert.