Nope, that hasn't helped, but it looks as if something very odd is going on with the backup drive. I looked back through system.log to where the backup was first attempted after the Quicktime/Raw Camera software update. There's a slew of errors there including warnings about low disk space on the backup drive.
So I ran verify disk again. Again OK. But in system.log, right after saying everything is OK with the disk, there are the low space and I/O errors again. Yet there is about 29 GB of free space on the volume.
Looking at the backup volume in Finder, I see the package for the backup that never finishes:
2008-06-10-184722.inProgress
Created back 4 days ago when this problem started, last modified when I last tried turning TM on earlier today.
Do you think it's safe to delete that package and see if TM recovers? Get Info reports it is 46 GB, about the same as it does for every completed backup folder above it. TM prefs reports there is 51 GB of total included files on the main drive.
Here are the system.log lines from the disk verify. disk2s5 is the volume "Time Machine Pakari-1". And yes, it is still excluded from Spotlight, despite the lines about "/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100..."
Jun 14 12:19:23 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: **********
Jun 14 12:19:23 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Disk Utility started.
Jun 14 12:20:32 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Verifying volume “Time Machine Pakari-1”
Jun 14 12:20:32 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Starting verification tool:
Jun 14 12:20:33 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking Journaled HFS Plus volume.
Jun 14 12:20:33 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Detected a case-sensitive catalog.
Jun 14 12:20:33 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking Extents Overflow file.
Jun 14 12:20:33 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking Catalog file.
Jun 14 12:22:18 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking multi-linked files.
Jun 14 12:23:49 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking Catalog hierarchy.
Jun 14 12:29:00 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking Extended Attributes file.
Jun 14 12:29:52 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking multi-linked directories.
Jun 14 12:37:06 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking volume bitmap.
Jun 14 12:37:06 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Checking volume information.
Jun 14 12:37:06 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: The volume Time Machine Pakari-1 appears to be OK.
Jun 14 12:37:07 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]: Verifying tool completed:
Jun 14 12:37:07 Pakari Disk Utility[4629]:
Jun 14 12:37:08: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:08 Pakari kernel[0]: jnl: disk2s5: flushing fs disk buffer returned 0x5
Jun 14 12:37:16 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:16 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:23: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:23 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:23 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:30: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:30 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:30 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:30: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:30 Pakari mds[31]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)(Error) IndexGeneral in void setAttributes(si_set_attr_ctx*, Boolean, long unsigned int):Couldn't update index.
Jun 14 12:37:30 Pakari mds[31]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)(Error) IndexGeneral in notify_lowspace:low space for device 234881029 (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)
Jun 14 12:37:30 Pakari mds[31]: (Error) Volume: LOW DISK SPACE device:234881029
Jun 14 12:37:37 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:37 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:43: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:43 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:43 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:50: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:50 Pakari kernel[0]: disk2s5: I/O error.
Jun 14 12:37:50 Pakari kernel[0]:
Jun 14 12:37:50: --- last message repeated 1 time ---
Jun 14 12:37:50 Pakari mds[31]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)(Error) IndexGeneral in void setAttributes(si_set_attr_ctx*, Boolean, long unsigned int):Couldn't update index.
Jun 14 12:37:50 Pakari mds[31]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)(Error) IndexGeneral in notify_lowspace:low space for device 234881029 (/Volumes/Time Machine Pakari-1/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/6F800D30-7E80-4A00-9EA0-A2F709A9F4E5)
Jun 14 12:37:50 Pakari mds[31]: (Error) Volume: LOW DISK SPACE device:234881029