When I was about 12-14 a friend had a Apple 128 or Commador 64 something like that...which at the time was "Top of the line" in home computing. We were still working with a TI-99 or other such computer my dad had purchased and upgraded several times. That was in the early 80's.
Today I have an 11 year old, using a G5 PowerMac and/or P4 PC system and this monster is released. Imagine if you will what will be available when he is 39. Will we continue to make such huge advances in technology?
I kind of wonder if we will hit a performance ceiling to the point where it doesn't really matter anymore. There will always be certain applications that will be power-hungry, but imagine computers that can edit any video in 100% realtime, that can render 3D scenes instantaneously (ALL frames at once!), and so on.
I think for the majority of users, that has already happened. The basics - Internet, Email, Office - already work lighting-fast on brand-new machines. I have a Core 2 Duo Windows laptop and all of my common applications open in the blink of an eye. I think that it will come down to applications (use of computers) and training. As far as training goes, no system can overcome a user who doesn't know how to organize their files, keep backups, etc. However, with proper design you can really make things easier on the user. Time Machine is looking good for most people and Spotlight really helps with file searching, for example. I mean, just take a look at Windows vs. Mac - the usability on a Mac is far superior to a stock Windows machine. Spotlight will find you anything you want. The Dock provides instant access to all of your commonly used programs. Ask a Mac user to tweak some settings and there is a SINGLE PLACE to go - the System Preferences window! No searching around in the Control Panel, in System Properties, in the Start Menu, or in some hidden menu somewhere else.
As far as applications go...I occasionally read an interesting Tom Clancy series called Net Force, wherein the computers can plug directly into your brain and they basically have unlimited computing power. The neural interface is present in holodeck-quality 3D and you can meet people virtually, do all kinds of research, and so on. Clancy has some really novel ideas as far as applications within the system, like mail (read and see!). I almost wonder if we will have a Star Trek-style future, where information and tools are readily available to anyone who wants them. Right now, Macs are just plain awesome for consumer computing. Add in Google, Wikipedia, and all of the other great sites out there and you have tremendous resources available at your disposal.
Yay for being a geek!
