Well, as my grandfather always said, close don't count in anything but horseshoes and hand grenades. If I had a nickel for every person reporting that they are "close" I'd have a couple iPhone free. It's not newsworthy until it's done.
Even if they do, I'm sure Apple knows how it will be done and can make a check any time you dock it, then brick it until it's properly activated. You would have to hack uploading iTunes content too, which could also be done.
I don't know if Apple will want to though, there is a huge untapped market of people wanting an unlocked version. But Apple probably has a legal duty to it's partnership with AT&T to do anything necessary to stop it.