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Not true you still can upgrade to a new iPhone and keep your unlimited plan I have a friend who is pretty high in ATT and I have been on the phone all day with him, so as far as I know you will be able to upgrade your iPhone and keep your plan, new iPhone users will not have. A choice
If we go by precedent, the original iPhone data plan was $20. When the 3G came out, upgraders were forced to pony up the increased $30 charge. So forcing people upgrading to the fourth gen iPhone to downgrade to the 2GB plan is not completely out of the realm of possibility.
AT&T is the type of company that doesn't know its face from its behind, I wouldn't be surprised if your buddy turned out to be wrong, regardless of how high up he is.