Is the Apple iPad a flop?

[chas_m]

It's basically a gigantic itouch with no flash. That's all it really is.

First of all, no its not.

Secondly, what's an itouch? Sounds dirty.

Third, the iPod Touch doesn't have flash either. Yeah, what a gigantic flop THAT turned out to be ...

 

[chas_m]

The market share will be way to small.

Surely we have to wait and see how many are actually sold or pre-ordered before we can make this assessment?

PS. "too" and "to" are different. Don't rely on spell-checkers.

People who want an e-book reader will stay away because of the price.

The leading ebook device, the Kindle DX, costs $10 less than an iPad. TEN DOLLARS.

The iPad is too big to carry around in your pocket, yet not big enough for ideal home use.

And you know this because you've tested it in your own home ... oh wait no you haven't.

This is pretty typical of the iPad haters ... fact-free speculation. Reminds of when the iPod came out.

And the iPhone.

And the App Store.

Or those who said Apple would never be a mainstream option.

Or those who said (and keep saying every quarter) that the iPod phenomenon has peaked.

Or those who said iTunes would never be the #1 seller of music.

Etc etc etc.


Forgive me for looking at Apple's track record over the last 13 years and thinking that perhaps they have some idea of what they are doing, and perhaps have spotted some potential the speculators have missed. Because that's never happened before or anything.

 

[blackmac11]

Surely we have to wait and see how many are actually sold or pre-ordered before we can make this assessment?

PS. "too" and "to" are different. Don't rely on spell-checkers.



The leading ebook device, the Kindle DX, costs $10 less than an iPad. TEN DOLLARS.



And you know this because you've tested it in your own home ... oh wait no you haven't.

This is pretty typical of the iPad haters ... fact-free speculation. Reminds of when the iPod came out.

And the iPhone.

And the App Store.

Or those who said Apple would never be a mainstream option.

Or those who said (and keep saying every quarter) that the iPod phenomenon has peaked.

Or those who said iTunes would never be the #1 seller of music.

Etc etc etc.


Forgive me for looking at Apple's track record over the last 13 years and thinking that perhaps they have some idea of what they are doing, and perhaps have spotted some potential the speculators have missed. Because that's never happened before or anything.

First of all, I am a big fan of apple, but I don't support something just because apple made it (some people do that for some reason). And of course I don't have any facts, the whole point of this thread is to post your own opinion. If you want to disagree thats fine, but you don't have to attack me with a page long, sarcasm-laden post.

I obviously don't have sales facts, but I do, however, know that most standard pockets are not 10" long and 7.5" wide. And I would rather look at a 17" laptop screen compared to holding a 10" screen.

p.s. sorry about the 'to' and 'too' mix up, I didn't catch it. I also didn't know the kindle was so expensive, so shoot me

 

[osxx]

The wife thinks this will be idea bedtime reader so she does not have to turn on the nightstand light to read a couple of pages and a curl up on the couch type of media
must be a hint for me to get her one.

 

[dtravis7]

The iPad is NOT a Kindle Reader. Sure it will read books, it does many more things also.

I have a friend that blasts everything apple makes. Said the iPad is JUST a Kindle that plays music. Really? iWork plays music? Safari and all the App Store Apps just play music? They also feel the iPhone is a iPod with Telephone. Nothing more.

If it was a Microsoft product though, they would rave about it.

I echo what others have said. WAIT till the iPad is released to pass judgement on it.

 

[cwa107]

I think at the end of the day, one has to consider the target audience for the iPad in their assessment of its usefulness. The iPad is not exclusively designed to appeal to the computing enthusiast (i.e. you and me), there's certainly room for it as a gadget, but I don't believe we're the target audience.

Again, if you think about how your parents, your grandparents or your typical teenager uses a computer these days, it makes a lot of sense. It's essentially a "thin client" that is designed to work like a computing appliance - you aren't going to run Photoshop on it, but it's handy to catch up with the news, read email or show off photos. Sure, it has iWork and can be used for productivity purposes, but that's not its primary purpose. Think of it as an eReader on steroids and you start to get the picture.

It took me quite awhile to wrap my brain around it, and sure I was disappointed at first blush. But when I started to think about it in the hands of my Dad, it really started to make a lot of sense.

As far as the screen size - I think it's about perfect. Today I'll carry around my iPod touch mostly to run simple apps and occasionally surf the web. But I can't tell you how many times I've longed for a bigger screen to make it more useful. So, even in that instance, it might be a fitting tool for even someone like me.

Although there are some parallels to a netbook, in reality, netbooks are more general purpose computers. The iPad has a pretty tight focus - it's a connected appliance, much like those that will run ChromeOS in the near future, but even more capable than that.

In short, it's a new, emerging category. It should be exciting to see how well its accepted and ultimately deployed - I'll reserve criticism until then.

 

[RavingMac]

I agree this subject has been beat to death . . . but on the other hand while I wait impatiently for my iPad I am unable to resist talking about it. Which to me is probably the biggest argument against the iPad being a flop. Look at the continued interest a product we won't see for weeks is generating.

I sympathize with those who are disappointed that the iPad wasn't what they would like Apple to have developed, but for me it is almost exactly what I have been waiting for (an oversized iPod Touch ).

 

[chas_m]

First of all, I am a big fan of apple, but I don't support something just because apple made it (some people do that for some reason).

Neither do I. But until I have some facts to work with, I tend to give Apple the benefit of the doubt due to their track record.

And of course I don't have any facts, the whole point of this thread is to post your own opinion.

But opinions (well, worthwhile opinions) need something factual to be based on. There ARE plenty of facts about the iPad out there, your post simply chose to ignore them and speculate based on nothing at all.

If you want to disagree thats fine, but you don't have to attack me with a page long, sarcasm-laden post.

I wasn't attacking you, I was attacking the ideas of "knowing" the size of the iPad market and whether or not it will sell prior to it having sold even one unit. The main declarations in your post (it will fail because it is "the wrong size," and because eBook readers won't pay $500 for it) are just assumptions (the latter of which is just flatly incorrect), not bolstered by any evidence. It's one thing to say "I don't think I'll buy one" and quite another to say "based on the fact that I probably won't buy one, nobody else will either." Its akin to saying that because one cannot see past the horizon, that must be the furthest point one could go.

My point(s) were that we -- any of us -- can't actually say that the iPad is a flop. Or a hit. We simply don't have the data needed to make a judgement on that at this point. Check back again in six months or so and we'll have a somewhat better idea of whether it turned out to be a hit, a flop or something in-between those two extremes. (As a side note, the iPod actually took about two years to really take off).

The other point was that its rather foolish to pronounce that the device won't sell, given Apple's recent history. I was not just addressing your post, but all such posts in this thread. The sarcasm was, again, aimed at the absurd notion that we (all of us, not just those who diss the iPad) know more about selling and marketing than Apple does, not you personally.

I obviously don't have sales facts, but I do, however, know that most standard pockets are not 10" long and 7.5" wide.

By this rationale, nobody would have ever bought a laptop, since it also does not fit in one's pocket. "Pocket-sized" is, pretty obviously, not a criteria for all portable devices. In Apple's own history there was a device called the Newton -- too large for a pocket (unless you were wearing a lab coat), and (literally) years ahead of its time, but incredibly popular in its day. The iPad is, in many ways, a direct descendant.

People these days tend to carry larger storage with them -- given your preference for a 17" laptop, you must already know this. From purses to backpacks, from briefcases to satchels -- even cargo pants now have larger pockets in them than they used to. The iPad is more than small enough to fit comfortably in all sorts of non-pocket spaces. It's certainly MORE convenient to carry than even the smallest netbook, and does most of what normal people use a netbook (or laptop, for that matter) to do when they are away from home.

And I would rather look at a 17" laptop screen compared to holding a 10" screen.

Well, you might change your mind about that when you hold one, but even if you don't, that's fine. But just because Product X isn't right for your own personal needs, doesn't automatically make it a flop. In intelligently assessing whether a given product may or may not do well, one has to weigh in factors outside one's own personal experience.

Another important consideration, particularly when its too early to know if a product will catch on, is to look at the track record and general judgement of the company producing it. Are they idiots who have a history of producing items the public hates, or are they generally successful with most of their ideas? This is the part that you (and a lot of iPad dismissers) have left out of their thinking, and doing so will probably come back to bite them if the past (particularly the recent past) is any indication.

p.s. sorry about the 'to' and 'too' mix up, I didn't catch it. I also didn't know the kindle was so expensive, so shoot me

That's "Grimace."

And yes, all the decent-sized ebook readers are pretty expensive; some are priced much HIGHER than the base price of the iPad. The ones that are less expensive (like the "original" Kindle or Barnes & Noble's "Nook" reader) are dramatically smaller than the iPad (the Nook is actually smaller than a paperback book, but still a little too big to fit comfortably in a pocket).

I should have made it more clear that I was addressing the views of more than just your post, but those of all similar such posts. Sorry.

 

[blackmac11]

Ok, all valid points. But my original post never said it would be a flop, I said it was a disappointment. There are many features that apple could have added to it which would make it appeal to a larger audience. However, adding these features means higher price, which they wanted to avoid. What it boils down to is how many people can actually justify buying one, and so far this appears to be a smaller number than apple hoped for (again, just speculating).

What I am trying to get at is that the very concept of a product like the iPad is very hard to bring about. Apple did a good job on the actual product, but it will be very hard to fit into the smaller niche it is aimed at. But like you mentioned, only time will tell.

 

[ezcompane]

The iPad is NOT a Kindle Reader. Sure it will read books, it does many more things also.

I have a friend that blasts everything apple makes. Said the iPad is JUST a Kindle that plays music. Really? iWork plays music? Safari and all the App Store Apps just play music? They also feel the iPhone is a iPod with Telephone. Nothing more.

If it was a Microsoft product though, they would rave about it.

I echo what others have said. WAIT till the iPad is released to pass judgement on it.

I agree with you and this is what I argued with my brother the other day. He happens to be on the Kindle wagon and thinks Apple is just ripping it off with an iPod-touch screen-Kindle. My opinion is that it will be a multi-use entertainment gadget that will combine several "necessary" pieces of hardware into one sleek piece of hardware. And I use the term necessary because I'll go out on a limb and state that people shopping for this type of device need to have their iPod/laptop/cellphone within reach at all times.

~~My primary use for this will be the eReader function. I had my sights on pulling the trigger on a Kindle in April as a B-day present to myself, but now that Apple is making hardware that will cater to my needs...I'm more than happy to spend the $$ for it and be a lab rat.

 

[ZorroAMG]

I'm pretty sure Apple's R&D department has a bit more experience and knowledge of the market it is launching to than the 30-100 posters complaining in these REDUNDANT threads.

I'll side with them until the product is out and in my hands and then and ONLY then will I decide if the product is for me. Why don't all of you know-it-alls try the same instead of a few trying to speak for the masses about the success of a product that isn't out yet?

Sheesh.

 

[Chris H.]

Okay, I'm giving my factual opinion, which happens to agree with at least some opinions on here as well.

Yes, based on Apple's history of selling the:

• iMac
• iPod
  
• MacBook
• iPhone
• and other Apple products since Jobs return in '97...

The iPad will probably sell very easily to consumers who already have those above, simply because it is an easy going experience, not much of a hassle and feasible to those that need a computer away from the computer (call it a bigger iPod touch if you like, I disagree). So it doesn't have flash, or a friggin' camera- again, simpler to use without those as far as the casual observer will go, correct? (Look at the iPhone and iPod touch. No harm no foul, they're selling pretty well right now).

The iPad features tools that will be of use already: a word processor, a presentation creation tool and a spreadsheet creator. It doesn't get any more simpler than that. And seeing the Keynote Address over again, I really don't see why this device would be considered a total flop, especially when things like email, music, the iTunes Store, iBooks/iBookstore, the calendar and the address book are simple to browse through. Things like these could easily get my grandmother to use them. Period.

And those that say it is a flop, well there really isn't any basis to that fact, because (again, some of us have pointed this out already) it hasn't been released yet.

And why oh why would you need 2.0 USB, Firewire 800, external display ports etc. on a simple device like this? It isn't a true computer, duh, and everything you'll need on it (from your iPhoto library to iTunes to your Office/iWork documents) fits on it. How Apple plans to get at least your iWork stuff on there is a complete mystery to ANYONE at this point, seeing as that not everyone will use iWork on the iPad. More than likely, getting your work will require a MobileMe account. Just stating the obvious here.

Apple probably did not intend this thing to replace the already useful MB/MBP line here, and those that want a simple but still useful mp3 player can pick up an iPod touch. If they want a phone, they can choose iPhone (or BlackBerry or Droid..who cares?!). The iPad is designed as stated above, to be the "computer away from the computer" in a less crammed environment. (I am not saying Mac OS X is crammed, I'm saying iPhone OS 3.2 is simpler than Mac OS X..why change something that works?).

Now, does anyone know if the rumor of Apple releasing a larger iPad/iPad-like device is true? I know it is too early to tell, but it doesn't hurt to spread the news at this point IMO. I believe the reason the MacBook Pro- sans physical keyboard tablet made by a 3rd party company isn't selling is because Apple didn't truly build the device...or design it..just the hardware, just the OS- though there is probably some fault to that statement.

 

[chas_m]

Now, does anyone know if the rumor of Apple releasing a larger iPad/iPad-like device is true?

It's a pretty safe bet that it is NOT true.

One of the features Apple paid the MOST attention to with the iPad is the size, shape and weight. The reason tablets have largely failed in the marketplace (if we want to talk about "flops" then the tablet computer is DEFINITELY one of those) is because they are incredibly awkward to hold for any length of time. You have to use them like you hold a clipboard, except they are far heavier. I would have thought that college and high school wasn't so long ago for most of you that you've forgotten the awkwardness of notebooks and textbooks and such.

The iPad appears -- at least Apple seems to think -- to be right dimensions to be comfortable in a great variety of physical positions, which is VERY central to the way it is used. Thus, a larger/heavier/more rectangular iPad wouldn't *be* an iPad ... it would be a tablet computer, and we've already seen that they are flops.

An iPad is a "casual computer," a device meant to free you from having to lug around a fair amount of equipment just to do a range of standard tasks, so you can do those standard tasks almost anywhere with zero setup. The big thing I think a lot of you are missing is that it's not meant to *replace* ANYTHING. It's meant to be its own thing.

To try and illustrate this: in the olden days of the telephone, most people only had one telephone for the entire house. If you wanted to make or receive a call, you had to go to where the telephone was. Later, we got multiple telephones, so you could have several in the house. You still had to go to the telephone, but the distance you had to travel was exponentially smaller. Later still, we got "cordless" telephones. Now you could make and receive calls anywhere in the house, maybe out to the mailbox even!

Finally, we got mobile phones. Now we can utilize that basic task (making and receiving calls) from literally anywhere, in whatever position or place we happen to be in. But remember how large and chunky and limited the original mobile phones were?

The iPhone (and the rest of today's smartphones) are awesome devices, but they can't do everything a computer can do. That's the choice we make for the convenience. We didn't replace our laptops/desktops with smartphones. But smartphones gave us the OPTION of not ALWAYS having to carry a computer with us everywhere all the time.

The iPad is an attempt to extend that "freedom" by giving us the ability to do standard tasks (much like the iPhone does) but on a larger, easier-to-read-but-still-easy-to-hold environment that has more accurate, more sophisticated and more flexible touch capabilities. It doesn't do (or try to do) everything, but what it does do, it (should) do very pleasurably (key concept there).

I think its MAIN appeal will be to exactly the sort of people you don't find much of on forums like this: non-nerds.

But its also a nice compliment to those of us who have/need the bigger horsepower. We're comfortable with computers; a lot of people are much less so. For a guy like me, the iPad looks to be a device I can take many of the places I would normally drag a laptop, or take to places where an iPhone might do the job but is too small to really use or read comfortably. For most "mundanes" as I think they are sometimes called, the iPad looks to be all the computer they need, running in a way that removes the barriers of intimidation and geekery for them. Not "dumbed down" so much as "simplified" if you will. In exchange for that zero-setup, zero-maintenance, zero-learning curve, they miss out on some features they are very unlikely to have wanted or used anyway, so its not a big deal to them.

I personally think the market for people like that is far, FAR bigger than the market for geeks like us.

 

[dtravis7]

Agreed Chas. Very much so in fact.

Only thing is I am one nerd/geek that wants one!

Besides the USB and SD dongle, I hope a RJ45 one comes out. Then I can ditch my netbook and just take the iPad with me on network calls.

 

[bobtomay]

chas, I think you've hit the nail on the head there

...
I think its MAIN appeal will be to exactly the sort of people you don't find much of on forums like this: non-nerds.

There are a few of us nerds that want one. The more I look at it and consider what it is I do with my Mac 70-90% of the time, I really want one. Like most, there are a couple of things I'd like to see added to it also. But have to say, this device has me getting more excited about it almost on a daily basis.

I personally think the market for people like that is far, FAR bigger than the market for geeks like us.

The possibility exists, the iPad could become the first electronics device that is not driven by the geeks, but by the common every day user, even at the objection of the geeks.

 

[cwa107]

The possibility exists, the iPad could become the first electronics device that is not driven by the geeks, but by the common every day user, even at the objection of the geeks.

I couldn't agree more. And it all depends on how it marketed - and knowing Apple, it will be marketed very well.

 

[cuhnool]

My opinions have been stated already, and I have nothing more to contribute to the subject other than the fact that I'm going to wait until I buy one in three months (or sooner) before formulating a true opinion based on how I use it, how it fits into my life, and how easy it makes everything else.

To sum it up, I do not like carrying my only laptop around that has no warranty. I like my MacBook, I want it to stay in my house where nothing is gonna break it, or where I'm going to drop it (because I'm a huge klutz), or where someone else is going to damage it. I would rather carry around a device that is covered by a warranty. And if I do damage the iPad, or something happens to it, I STILL have my laptop at home with ALL my data unharmed.

So again, until I get to use one and use it in my life, I have nothing else to contribute to the matter.

 

[RavingMac]

~~My primary use for this will be the eReader function. I had my sights on pulling the trigger on a Kindle in April as a B-day present to myself, but now that Apple is making hardware that will cater to my needs...I'm more than happy to spend the $$ for it and be a lab rat.

I'll squeak to that!

 

[zewazir]

It seems to me that most of the complaints against the iPad focus on one central theme: it isn't going to let those of us who need the capabilities of a MacBook/MacBook Pro to leave them home and take an iPad instead.

It also seems to me if the iPad DID allow people who need the capabilities of a MacBook to choose the iPad instead, Apple Corp. would be shooting their laptop sales in the foot. Instead, we have what looks to me to be a rather nice intermediate device: full of every-day abilities for every-day people to use in every-day manner. I cannot say I want one, as I am one of those who needs the capabilities of my PowerBook (someday to be a MacBook Pro....). But just because I (and those like me) do not want one in no way indicates a flop.

 

[the8thark]

It seems to me that most of the complaints against the iPad focus on one central theme: it isn't going to let those of us who need the capabilities of a MacBook/MacBook Pro to leave them home and take an iPad instead.

You are correct. But the ipad was never designed or marketed as a MB/MBP replacement. It's more a netbook/ipad touch repalcement.

Actually that gets me thinking. When the ipad is out, will it affect ipad touch sales? As the ipad is basically a larger ipad touch. This is one issue I reeally would want Apple to comment on. Cause I really want to know.