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  1. #1
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    iggibar's Avatar
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    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    Quote Originally Posted by CNN
    Article Link: Apple is in trouble!


    Apple is in deep trouble. With a ten percent drop in its stock price on the day and low sales forecast in China, the technology behemoth is facing a tough quarter ahead.
    Samsung, the largest conglomerate in South Korea, is also struggling to deal with low sales. As smartphones users feel less compelled to acquire new models, satisfied with older versions, smartphone manufacturers could continue to see a decline in sales throughout the years to come.
    Dilemma of Apple

    Apple shares took a 10 percent haircut on Thursday.On January 2, Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, wrote in a letter to the investors of the company that the firm’s projected revenue is expected to be lower than its initial expectation.
    Cook wrote:
    Based on these estimates, our revenue will be lower than our original guidance for the quarter, with other items remaining broadly in line with our guidance. While it will be a number of weeks before we complete and report our final results, we wanted to get some preliminary information to you now. Our final results may differ somewhat from these preliminary estimates.
    Due to the ongoing trade war and the unresolved tension between the two countries, the overall demand and popularity of Apple products in China declined in recent months.
    Similar to the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, the economy of China, affected by the poor performance of its stock market, has weakened throughout 2018. The slow rate of growth of the Chinese economy, as well as the conflict between local conglomerates such as Huawei and Western authorities, are said to have contributed to the decline in sales of Apple products.
    Cook said:
    China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States.
    Within merely few hours, the stock price of Apple plunged from $158 to $142.5, by nearly 10 percent.
    The steep sell-off of Apple shares comes from the company’s belief that the root issue that caused the company to struggle in the past quarter is the increasing tension between the U.S. and China.
    However, if the trade war is the driving factor of Apple’s declining sales and it remains uncertain whether a comprehensive trade deal will be established by March 1, investors cannot possibly expect the performance of the company in China to improve in the short-term.
    Apple Doesn’t Understand the Real Issue

    Apple CEO Tim Cook said that customers weren’t upgrading to newer device models as quickly as the company expected.As The Verge social networks columnist Casey Newton said, many analysts have pointed towards the high specifications and strong performance of Apple’s previous mobile phone models as the major contributing factor to the company’s short-term struggle.
    For the first time, users are finding it challenging to justify an upgrade from the previous model (iPhone X) to iPhone XS.
    “This was the first year in five that I didn’t upgrade my iPhone. Two reasons: – iPhone X was really, really good, and battery life is still great – The 2018 models were functionally identical to the iPhone X,” Newton said.
    The MacBook Air, an ambitious redesign of one of the company’s flagship products, has also been criticized for its pricing, which costs around $100 less than the MacBook Pro, a high-performance version of the MacBook that exceeds the specifications of the MacBook Air and is not that much heavier than the Air.
    This is something that has been bothering me lately with Apple, and it has to do with this article.
    I remember the days when I used to eagerly wait something awesome from Apple's new release schedule. I knew that the product I was buying was going to be great! That hasn't been the case in the past couple of years. It's been mostly riddled with let-downs.

    Hopefully 2019 changes that with a new Mac Pro that is supposed to be introduced(praying and hoping!). Everything has turned extremely stale for my. I miss that excitement that I used to get when buying a new Apple product I would get some years ago knowing that what I was buying was something great. Competition has caught up, and that excitement has shifted to other manufacturers and products. Obviously, this is business, and everyone knows the market eventually balances out, but it only paints the bigger picture for Apple, but they seem too blind to see: their new products are getting boring in today's competitive market!

    When it comes to knowing Apple products, with exception to reviewers, I don't know of anyone who owns(or has owned) as many Apple products as I have. I don't even bother updating my owned list anymore because it changes so much. I like to believe that if I have this feeling about them, others will as well. There isn't a single product from Apple that interests me right now. The one thing I was interested in, I already own. Introduced in 2013 and hardly changed since: Trash Can Mac Pro.

    I have a considerable amount invested in Apple through my Vanguard retirement package, and I chose to do so because Apple is one of the few tech companies I love to stand behind. So, it is in my interest for them to do well...which is why it REALLY FRIKIN bothers me that Apple claims they don't know what is causing their issues!! Are they really that blind? You have analysts. You have reviewers. You have Apple product experts. You have a MASSIVE and isolated buyer's segment. You also have all other demographics that have the ability to purchase their products across the world. You know the common criticism from all of them? The products are getting predictable with new micro generational updates. They're getting old, stale, and stagnant. And Apple claims they don't know what the issue is here? I'm extremely disappointed how they pass the blame on trade war, when other competitors are having record sales! People like to comment on how buyers are pulling away from expensive phones, but top-tier phones, those that come close to, or exceed the $1K price point, are having record sales!

    What I wish from Apple:
    • Tim needs to go! His penny-pinching business qualities are not what Apple needs.
    • Stop pinching pennies when profit margins are the largest in all segments.
    • Design for quality first, then make it visually pleasing! My first gen iPad was a tank. My new iPad feels like I could break it in half just by blowing on it. Everyone knows about the Trash Can Mac Pro.
    • Stop focusing on trying to COMPLETELY redesign something just to show off your design abilities(cough...Mac Pro...cough)- and this goes back to quality of esthetics. There should be no compromises with great products, but this seems really hard for Apple to understand.
    • Listen to what the customers want, instead of being SOOOOOOOOO stubborn and prideful!
    • When you make great products, as well as products that are more expensive, people tend to hold on to them longer. Instead of incremental changes every year for a phone that looks the same, Hold out for major updates. There's no need to chase a competitor's quick product cycles if you have a better product to begin with.


    It's simple! Make something great without any compromises, and people will love it!!
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  2. #2
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    harryb2448's Avatar
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    Take it from a shareholder iggi. just a temporary setback thanks to your Trump.
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  3. #3
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
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    United States stock markets in general are down 25%-33% from their highs...especially tech stocks. Most of Apple's stock price decline is due to the difficult market conditions at this time...NOT only due to what that CNN article is highlighting.

    The "overly dramatic" graph above only show's Apples stock price declining from $157 to $142...that's only a $15 swing...and that's not much at all. Apple's stock price can easily swing $5-$10 up one day...and $5-$10 down the next day.

    Apple stocks 52 week high price was about $233 back in early October. If a 6-month graph of Apple's stock price were viewed...that graph would look similar to other stocks like Google, Amazon, Intel, Tesla, Netflix, etc. US stock markets are currently in a "bear market"...and many stocks are down...not just Apple.

    - Nick
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  4. #4
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    pigoo3's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iggibar View Post
    ...I don't know of anyone who owns(or has owned) as many Apple products as I have.
    Better put me on that short-list (even if it's just one name)!

    - Nick
    - Too many "beachballs", read this: Beachballs
    - Computer seems slower than it used to? Read this for some slow computer tips: Speedup
    - Almost full hard drive? Some solutions. Out of Space
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  5. #5
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    MacInWin's Avatar
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    And today, about the time of the OP, the stock closed at $148+, or up just under 5% today. So it's not time to panic.

    Another way to look at it is that if Cook was accurate that the expectations would be 5% below forecast, then this quarter would be the second-best quarter in Apple's history. All things in perspective.
    Jake

  6. #6
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    lclev's Avatar
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    Well aware of the volatility of the stock market but - does it bother anyone when reading statements like "iPhone sales tanked in China" as the reason for quarterly sales drops? Or "People are not upgrading their phones as quickly or often enough" as another reason. It just makes me wonder if Apple is putting all of it's "apples in one basket" - iPhone sales - as an indicator of a success.

    Lisa
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  7. #7
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    MacInWin's Avatar
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    Lisa, it's not Apple putting all the apples in one basket, it is the stock analysts who measure Apple success in terms of iPhones sold. But what Apple wants is profit, doesn't really care about market share. It's a bit like Rolls-Royce. They don't sell many cars, but they aren't competing with Ford or Chevy to sell the most vehicles. Build quality, sell at a high price to people who appreciate the quality. Personally, I think Apple wants to move away from iDevices (and maybe hardware in toto) in general and get to more services. I can see IAAS (iPhone As A Service) coming sooner than folks may think. I have already signed up for the monthly payment and upgrade option every 12 months plan from Apple and just view my iPhone as a "rental" to get the service. I don't really need to buy it, I just want to use it. In the same way, I subscribe to Office365 so that I don't have to buy an Office license to use it. I think it's the future of services and that's where Apple wants to go. When a device is an appliance, like a phone, the profit margins for sales go way down because people will be more focused on finding the cheapest appliance, which Apple knows. The opportunities to shake up the market like Jobs did in starting the smartphone era don't come along very often. And right now, just about every mobile looks exactly like the others. You can argue about chips/memory/modem/tech stuff, but they all work about the same, with about the same features and functions. Even the so-called folding screen phones that may or may not come this year are just an incremental change. What Jobs did was take a dumb flip phone and make it smart. That's the revolution. After that, making it smarter is not revolution, but evolution. And evolution eventually ends up with every device being so similar that the discriminator becomes cost. And that's not Apple's area of competition. Again, they build Rolls-Royces, not Chevys.

    What the stock market doesn't like is the ephemeral nature of services. They can count the number of "things" sold, but can't get their heads around the idea of services sold from a "things" company. So every time a "things" company tries to become a "services" company, Wall Street freaks out. Frankly, I think it's clever of Apple to structure the current payments plan they way they have, as it is a natural bridge to IAAS as the full model eventually. Get enough of us making that monthly payment and give the statistics out as an investment advisory and then move to strengthen that sector, eventually keep it as the only model, or at least the majority model. (Yes, people will scream, but they always do when Apple changes anything that Jobs didn't personally think up and approve, at least in their minds.)

    I used to tell my consulting customers (Mostly Fortune 100 companies) that you have two choices--be Saks and sell one purse for $10,000 or be WalMart and sell 1000 purses for $10. Both get the same revue but one has a really thin margin that counts on volume to make the profit, the other has a hefty profit but depends on customers being willing to pay a lot for quality (and the prestige of the product). Again, Rolls or Chevy. Companies who don't survive are caught in the middle--quality/prestige not up to Saks, prices above WalMart. Ugly place to be.
    Jake

  8. #8
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    Slydude's Avatar
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    You've all suggested good reasons to take these or similar reports with a grain of salt. Perspective is allways important -- especially when reading predictions made by analyists. As with any other projections some of these things have not only been wrong in the past but, in some cases, loud wrong.

    I don't read as much of this stuff as some of you do but a couple of things come to mind when I read financial projections / predictions. The following apple to Apple but could apply to any prediction being pushed by the talking heads of various outlets:

    1. Often times the article focuses on gloom and doom are based not on what actually happened but whether company X met industry projections. Sometimes the original projections weren't very accurate /or realistic (by Apple or industry watchers). Anybody here remember some of the ridiculous sales projections made during John Scully's tenure at Apple?

    2. Do any of these writers/publications discuss or discloses their own biases or possible conflicts with regard to what thet are reporting on. And before anyone asks I do not trust editors of these publications to be on top of that any more than I trust there's an alligator walking across the moon at this very moment.

    3. There have been times when I have questioned how much the writers of said articles understood what they are writing about in the first place. It's the same caveat I place on political commentary: I could foten get the same logic from denizens of the local bar during happy hour.
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  9. #9
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    lclev's Avatar
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    Jake - very valid points and excellent insight. I see your point and also the writing on the wall. Apple moving to a monthly fee for device rental or services is a model Adobe and Microsoft have embraced. And I hate it even if it is the way of the future and also a way to ensure the longevity of our favorite tech companies.

    Lisa
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  10. #10
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    MacInWin's Avatar
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    Lisa, here is a model that would work. Let's say that Apple sets the "value" of a new XS iPhone at $1,000 (the current price in the US) and the Upgrade Program monthly charge at $50 (pays over 24 months, includes AppleCare+ as a requirement). In fact, that is the current status at the US prices, so there you go. Now let's say that they decide to sell the iPhone 8 for $750, Upgrade program at $30/month (also current pricing at Apple.com). Add in the iPhone 7 as about $500/$24 price point (also current Apple.com). About all they need to do to shift to a full rental program is to eliminate the purchase price (or move it so high nobody is willing to pay it. Maybe they already tried that with the $1,000 price tag and got surprised that anyone would actually pay that much!) and move folks into the Upgrade Program (rental). Then next year, when the next model comes out, keep the "rental" price for the new one at $50, or maybe let it rise for inflation, then set the price for a "new" rental of an XS at today's iPhone 8, or $30 and a new iPhone 8 at $24. All with a two year rental agreement. The motivation is to keep going with Apple's latest for the folks who want to, trading in every year for the latest and greatest, then folks with older can move up to a year newer at about the same rental, etc, etc. Lather, rinse, repeat. You have a "services" model buried in this rental plan. Plus, you have sold a lot more AppleCare+ services as it is bundled with the rental program. Nice chunk of revenue there, but the consumer is happy because it's insurance against destroying it by accident and having to pay the buying price that is so out of sight. And for the few oil barons who can or will pay the ridiculous "buy" price, ok, you can do that, but Apple is focused on the rental market.

    Frankly, given where the price point is now, and the durability and long life of the current devices, I think Apple is making the move now, we just haven't seen the handwriting on the wall. And once the move is made, the "unit sales" of iDevices becomes irrelevant to Apple, they are not in the "sales" business any more.
    Jake

  11. #11
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    dtravis7's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by iggibar
    ...I don't know of anyone who owns(or has owned) as many Apple products as I have.
    Quote Originally Posted by pigoo3 View Post
    Better put me on that short-list (even if it's just one name)!

    - Nick
    Put me on that list also!
    Last edited by dtravis7; 01-05-2019 at 12:13 AM.

  12. #12
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    harryb2448's Avatar
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    And I also.

    In June it will be 20 years I have owned my Apple Stock and have seen and read it all before. How these doom sayers would like to be right and see Apple crash!!
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  13. #13
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    toMACsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MacInWin View Post
    Companies who don't survive are caught in the middle--quality/prestige not up to Saks, prices above WalMart. Ugly place to be.
    Or, follow the lead of Palessi, a pranked Payless Shoe Store with the regular line of shoes hyped up by marketing as a luxury brand, and prices jacked up to match those expectations.

    Five Marketing Lessons from the Payless Shoe Prank - Knowledge@Wharton

  14. #14
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    MacInWin's Avatar
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    The Palessi stunt was very clever. They managed to convey that their shoes are as stylish as the most expensive shoes but at a much lower price, and that style is entirely in the eye of the beholder. But Payless is at the WalMart end of the spectrum, and the stunt won't change that. The folks in the middle are the mom and pop stores that cannot compete with online vendors or big box stores for price, but don't sell the high end material because there isn't much demand. They cannot sell that one $10,000 purse, nor can they sell 1,000 $10 ones. That's the real reason for the failures we see in small towns. What some small towns are doing is moving the downtown to be closer to Saks, with high end boutique stores that are "destination shops" and leaving the day-to-day shopping to the big box stores or online. I think the jury is still out on whether or not they succeed. The middle is very susceptible to downturns in the economy because they are not essential, but optional. Saks can ride out a downturn, mom and pop can't. It's going to be interesting to watch this transformation to see if it survives.
    Jake

  15. #15
    Apple is in trouble following stock hit
    Cr00zng's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MacInWin View Post
    Lisa, here is a model that would work. Let's say that Apple sets the "value" of a new XS iPhone at $1,000 (the current price in the US) and the Upgrade Program monthly charge at $50 (pays over 24 months, includes AppleCare+ as a requirement). In fact, that is the current status at the US prices, so there you go. Now let's say that they decide to sell the iPhone 8 for $750, Upgrade program at $30/month (also current pricing at Apple.com). Add in the iPhone 7 as about $500/$24 price point (also current Apple.com). About all they need to do to shift to a full rental program is to eliminate the purchase price (or move it so high nobody is willing to pay it. Maybe they already tried that with the $1,000 price tag and got surprised that anyone would actually pay that much!) and move folks into the Upgrade Program (rental). Then next year, when the next model comes out, keep the "rental" price for the new one at $50, or maybe let it rise for inflation, then set the price for a "new" rental of an XS at today's iPhone 8, or $30 and a new iPhone 8 at $24. All with a two year rental agreement. The motivation is to keep going with Apple's latest for the folks who want to, trading in every year for the latest and greatest, then folks with older can move up to a year newer at about the same rental, etc, etc. Lather, rinse, repeat. You have a "services" model buried in this rental plan. Plus, you have sold a lot more AppleCare+ services as it is bundled with the rental program. Nice chunk of revenue there, but the consumer is happy because it's insurance against destroying it by accident and having to pay the buying price that is so out of sight. And for the few oil barons who can or will pay the ridiculous "buy" price, ok, you can do that, but Apple is focused on the rental market.

    Frankly, given where the price point is now, and the durability and long life of the current devices, I think Apple is making the move now, we just haven't seen the handwriting on the wall. And once the move is made, the "unit sales" of iDevices becomes irrelevant to Apple, they are not in the "sales" business any more.
    Isn't that what most carriers do nowadays in the US? Minus the ApplcaCare+ and plus deposit with two years commitment.

    If you lookup the Magenta / T-Mobile, or any other carrier company in the US, the iPhone XS would cost less with three years commitment, than purchasing it directly from Apple. Only if you'd include AppleCare+ for three years, the T-Mobile way would cost about 5% more, than purchasing from Apple. For example:

    iPhone XS from US carriers for three years withAppleCare+: 1504
    The same from Apple for two years: 1438

    Yes, one can get a new phone from Apple after two years. In which case, the Apple's ways cost for three years would be 2366, provided the end user gets another loan from Citizen Bank. Yes, it is a loan, quote:

    Available to qualified customers with a credit check and eligible U.S. credit card. Requires a 24-month installment loan with a 0% APR from Citizens Bank, N.A. (subject to any interest, fees, or other costs payable to the issuer of the credit card), purchase of AppleCare+ for iPhone, and iPhone activation with one of these national carriers: AT&T, Sprint, Verizon, or T‑Mobile. Sales tax and any applicable fees due at time of purchase.
    Source

    No, I am not against IAAS, but not when it'll cost much more than I can get it now and I take my chances with no AppleCare+...

    PS: Moderator... I am not certain that actual cost numbers can be posted. Please delete the post, if it's against the rules...

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