I don't think the iPhone will be as big as anticipated.

kablooie · Jun 4, 2007

First of all, expectations are way over the top. There are rosy predictions of massive sales all over the place. When something is that highly anticipated, rarely does it meet expectations.

And the main reason it won't do as well as expected is the price. How many people will spend $600? That is not a small purchase. We are in PS3 territory.
Even $500 would be stretching it.

$600 makes it feel like a Brookstone, Sharper Image overpriced frivolous luxury item, and not the, "everyone's got to have one" image that would be needed to achieve the predicted sales.

I expect the rollout to be a big disappointment. After the first flurry of Apple fan sales, they will drop to a slow crawl.

dtravis7 · Jun 4, 2007

They said that about the iPod also when it first came out. It's price was at $400. Look at what happened. Time will tell.

http://news.com.com/Apples+iPod+spurs+mixed+reactions/2100-1040_3-274821.html

Kash · Jun 4, 2007

There are people on both sides of the fence about the success of the iPhone. Since it's been hyped so much, it'll definitely make money. Though whether it'll make as much as Apple would like, only time will tell.

kaidomac · Jun 4, 2007

I think that the iPhone will be big in terms of being an agent of change. A full touchscreen and visual voicemail are a couple of neat technologies that I think will help spur the mobile market into making some changes. There's been no incentive for manufacturers and provides to change before. Now Apple is shaking things up. Apple brings a unified backend to cell phones - now you can easily sync your contacts and music to your computer. It's such a pain to do that with existing software like Motorola Phone Tools that I don't even bother. I think that Apple will help take the cell phone arena from what it is to what it should be. With computers, they made them easy to use and reliable (my wife's iMac only crashes about twice a year!). It looks like they are going to do a great job doing the same thing with cell phones.

The price is high, but it will drop in the next two or three revisions. Like dtravis7 said, the first iPod was $400. Who in the world would pay that much for a music player? A TON of people, as it turned out. Now the iPhone offers to get rid of one of the devices in your pocket that you carry around - an iPod PLUS a phone, PLUS easy-to-use applications for email, maps, contacts, and so on. How annoying is it when you get 10 voicemails and have to wade through the stupid menu system instead of having Apple's great visual voicemail system? A huge reason that Mac users love their Macs is that they take those small hassles away and make them intuitive and easy to use.

lellolelotti · Jun 4, 2007

I can't wait!!!

dan828 · Jun 4, 2007

kaidomac said:
I think that the iPhone will be big in terms of being an agent of change. A full touchscreen and visual voicemail are a couple of neat technologies that I think will help spur the mobile market into making some changes. There's been no incentive for manufacturers and provides to change before. Now Apple is shaking things up. Apple brings a unified backend to cell phones - now you can easily sync your contacts and music to your computer. It's such a pain to do that with existing software like Motorola Phone Tools that I don't even bother. I think that Apple will help take the cell phone arena from what it is to what it should be. With computers, they made them easy to use and reliable (my wife's iMac only crashes about twice a year!). It looks like they are going to do a great job doing the same thing with cell phones.

The price is high, but it will drop in the next two or three revisions. Like dtravis7 said, the first iPod was $400. Who in the world would pay that much for a music player? A TON of people, as it turned out. Now the iPhone offers to get rid of one of the devices in your pocket that you carry around - an iPod PLUS a phone, PLUS easy-to-use applications for email, maps, contacts, and so on. How annoying is it when you get 10 voicemails and have to wade through the stupid menu system instead of having Apple's great visual voicemail system? A huge reason that Mac users love their Macs is that they take those small hassles away and make them intuitive and easy to use.

I have to say that what you are talking about, other than the visual viocemail, are all currently available with pda/smartphones on the market. Syncing with Windowsmobile smartphones and exchange servers (including push email) has been available for some time, not to mention easy and unified syncing through activesync to Outlook for non-exchange users.

Doubtless it's going to make a big splash, but the visual voicemail the nice interface are the only new feature that is being offered. Maybe that will be enough, but if it doesn't have a good way of doing push email I think it'll have trouble penetrating the business market.

coach_z · Jun 4, 2007

wasnt the motorola razr in that price range when it first came out? or at least close to that price? i hope my memory serves me correctly on that one.

well if it was, then im sure that it will be a big seller anyway. i plan on buying one once my verizon plan runs out in august considering cingular/att has better service in my area now
-chris

kaidomac · Jun 5, 2007

dan828 said:
I have to say that what you are talking about, other than the visual viocemail, are all currently available with pda/smartphones on the market. Syncing with Windowsmobile smartphones and exchange servers (including push email) has been available for some time, not to mention easy and unified syncing through activesync to Outlook for non-exchange users.

Doubtless it's going to make a big splash, but the visual voicemail the nice interface are the only new feature that is being offered. Maybe that will be enough, but if it doesn't have a good way of doing push email I think it'll have trouble penetrating the business market.

You're absolutely right. I think that what Mac is bringing to the table is enhanced usability - just like their computers. Sure Windows has all of the stuff OS X has to offer - and yet we're using Macs! I have a Windows SmartPhone right now and the iPhone looks infinitely easier to use. The thing that sets Apple apart is that their products are user-friendly and intuitive, whether it's a Mac computer, an iPod, or AppleTV.

I won't buy the first model, but I'll keep my eye on the second or third iPhone release. I'm not a big fan of ActiveSync so I'm really looking forward to being able to easily sync with OS X. I think that the iPhone will need to play some catch-up to Smartphones and the like since there are so many apps on the market for them. One of my big gripes with the iPhone (no 3rd-party apps) was recently addressed and may see the light of day in coming months. All in all, things are looking pretty exciting and I'm anxiously awaiting the reviews

kaidomac · Jun 5, 2007

coach_z said:
wasnt the motorola razr in that price range when it first came out? or at least close to that price? i hope my memory serves me correctly on that one.

well if it was, then im sure that it will be a big seller anyway. i plan on buying one once my verizon plan runs out in august considering cingular/att has better service in my area now
-chris

...and now everyone and their dog has a Razr! I'm sure we'll be seeing $199 iPhones with a 2-year agreement eventually. Companies always launch the first major product in a line with the highest pricetag possible. Just look at processors - the 2ghz Core 2 Duo is only around $200 but the top-end 2.33ghz Core 2 Duo is still over $600. It's just the way things work. I mean, maybe $199 is a tad unrealistic, but iPods have certainly dropped in price over the years. I never thought we'd see an iPod for less than $100 and yet the new Shuffles are only $79. It's all a matter of time...

Mactheknife · Jun 5, 2007

A good point noted above is the Razr. When it first came out it was $600 to buy the phone, and although it was pretty, it was basically a flat phone with no new features.

Price doesn't matter. Apple knows what people will pay to own a state of the art piece of equipment. Sales will soar.

gilesjuk · Jun 5, 2007

People buy phones on contracts, if the shackles of a contract are too much to bear then it won't sell.

The operator deals are what will make or break it.

Also, it needs to be a more open product with 3rd party developer access. Even if it's just commercial companies. It needs Tomtom GPS software.

baggss · Jun 5, 2007

gilesjuk said:
People buy phones on contracts, if the shackles of a contract are too much to bear then it won't sell.

The operator deals are what will make or break it.

Also, it needs to be a more open product with 3rd party developer access. Even if it's just commercial companies. It needs Tomtom GPS software.

Based on Steve's recent comments, I don't think you'll have to wait to long for that. I suspect that 3rd party apps will be available within a year.

The availability of 3rd party apps is one of the things I like the most about my Palm Tro 700P. Nearly all Palm apps work on it, and my provider really can't lock much out of the Palm side, so the ability to make custom ring tones and add more capability is always there. Sadly, with Palm dumping the Palm OS on all future Palm platforms, that may change. Depending on how the new Linux based Palm OS works out, I may end up switching carriers and get an iPhone in 18 month when my contract is up.

Phoenix Scanner · Jun 6, 2007

Forcing people to switch to cingular will hurt the product big time in the beginning. I remember when I made the mistake years ago of using Tmobile, which is also gsm. I had real reception issues inside of certain buildings, including my home. When I called them they explained that GSM phones sometimes have issues inside of buildings. Wonderful, a phone that doesn't work in my home. CDMA and TDMA phones (verizon is best) work fine everywhere. Verizon always wins the award for the best service.

I am not switching from a good carrier to a bad one for the phone, which bums me out. The phone itself is revolutionary.

Original Nerd · Jun 6, 2007

Phoenix Scanner said:
Forcing people to switch to cingular will hurt the product big time in the beginning. I remember when I made the mistake years ago of using Tmobile, which is also gsm. I had real reception issues inside of certain buildings, including my home. When I called them they explained that GSM phones sometimes have issues inside of buildings. Wonderful, a phone that doesn't work in my home. CDMA and TDMA phones (verizon is best) work fine everywhere. Verizon always wins the award for the best service.

I am not switching from a good carrier to a bad one for the phone, which bums me out. The phone itself is revolutionary.

Even though Tmobile and AT&T both use GSM they have their own towers. Sure some towers are open for roaming agreements but not all. To think you will have bad service because you had it with T-Mo and they both use GSM is wrong. The biggest difference in "in-building" reception is not based on the technology as much as it is the frequency. 1900Mhz doesn't penetrate as well as 800Mhz does. By the way TDMA is the foundation for GSM.
The only way to know what kind of reception you will get in your home is to try the service with the specific phone. All phones vary a little so some will be better than others. Just saying don't judge the company by misinformation.

Cashmonee · Jun 8, 2007

kaidomac said:
You're absolutely right. I think that what Mac is bringing to the table is enhanced usability - just like their computers. Sure Windows has all of the stuff OS X has to offer - and yet we're using Macs! I have a Windows SmartPhone right now and the iPhone looks infinitely easier to use. The thing that sets Apple apart is that their products are user-friendly and intuitive, whether it's a Mac computer, an iPod, or AppleTV.

I won't buy the first model, but I'll keep my eye on the second or third iPhone release. I'm not a big fan of ActiveSync so I'm really looking forward to being able to easily sync with OS X. I think that the iPhone will need to play some catch-up to Smartphones and the like since there are so many apps on the market for them. One of my big gripes with the iPhone (no 3rd-party apps) was recently addressed and may see the light of day in coming months. All in all, things are looking pretty exciting and I'm anxiously awaiting the reviews

Have you tried "The Missing Sync" from MarkSpace? It works well and has been very reliable for me syncing my Q. The iPhone interface looks interesting, but I have a feeling the touchscreen will leave a lot to be desired.

jotdess · Jun 8, 2007

I remember when the star tac first came out it was 700 and people bought it. Same thing with the Vader. Even the Nokia silver slider that is no longer available was around 800 and people bought it.

Only time will tell how successful it is. I'm most likely buying one if I can get my hands on one. I can get an upgrade right now so I'll just wait.