sany made all those standerds, and i really believe that HD-DVD will win. I dont' like to say it, but the biggest sofware giant (Microsoft) is Backing HD-DVD so a lot of PC are going to have HD-DVD instead of Blu-Ray, and the older, less tech savvy people who don't spend their time researching this stuff are not going to know what Blu-Ray is. it's title does not say anything about what it does. thy will by HD-DVD becasue they know it will be HD, and a DVD.
Another factor hat is going to effect the battle are the consoles. x360 is going with HD-DVD (th external 100 someting player) and the PS3 is going Blu-Ray. The x360 is a lot more popular then the PS3 and cheaper. there for it will have a bigger market share (i believe, parents who buy their kids consoles are more likely to pay for an x360 then a PS3 due to the price). The PS3 was also named he biggest loser of 2006 by New York Times.
Blu-Ray is also more expensive to make (although i don't think there is much of a difference anymore) so the media is goin to cost more (not to the end consumers, but to the studios who are going to use the media), so more studios are going to back HD-DVD due to the lower cost and greater profits. The Players are also cheaper for HD-DVD, which will also be a deciding factor.
Now before you say "but Blu-Ray can hold more content". That is true, but HD-DVD has more then enough to get a HD movie on it. Current non-HD movies look pretty good and the only use 4.7gb, or the dual layer 8.5gb. So relisticaly the 15gb capacity of single layer HD-DVD is enough, you dont need the 25gb capacity of the Blu-Ray single layer.