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I have to politely disagree with you on that one. Many people in other forums have called me an idiot for my predictions but I feel like mine make sense, at least somewhat. I would predict that iPad 2 will be announced either this Fall or Winter 2011. I say this because Apple has been very "hush-hush" about iOS 4 on iPad and while they could just be keeping it quiet until they are fully done with it, I believe they could also be planning it's announcement alongside a refreshed iPad. If iPad 2 isn't announced this Fall, it will definitely be announced Winter 2011. Plus, Steve Jobs gave a very subtle hint at his WWDC Keynote when he said that Apple will sell "something-million FACETIME DEVICES" this year. "Devices" wouldn't be used if he were speaking only about iPhone 4. The only other possibility is iPod Touch, but that has no camera as of right now, so to expect a front-facing camera by this Fall on it would be foolish. That's just my prediction!
I for one am inclined to agree with you. It seems a bit odd to me that they are holding off iOS4 for the iPad until the fall. A modest refresh in time for the Christmas shopping season would help push sales further while throwing Apple's competitors completely off guard as they are scrambling to catch up with the first iteration.