The iPad will sell, just like the iPhone and iPod touch have sold. No, it's Adobe who's losing here, and it's absolutely delicious to me. (Begin crazy old lady rantings) In the good old days, Adobe loved Apple, but it seems like in the late 90s and early 2000s, they became Windows shills because it was in fashion, even though most of their sales came from Macintosh users. And the sad part is that it's not just Flash... it's Adobe's entire lineup.
Adobe's products, while comprehensive are not the quality that they used to be on Macintosh, while the Windows versions are always tip-top, while it used to be that pride was taken in both releases. I guess those days are over, since they can be like everybody else and treat Mac users like crumbs. I'm betting that they're still sore over iMovie and Final Cut Pro coming along and slitting the throat of their sales of Premiere... which I hated using anyway.
Despite the decline in quality, it's because of that bad-old stigma of "using unprofessional software" nobody will vote with their pocketbooks and support software that could just as easily beat The Shop at its own game. That, I think is what makes me sad. Entire industries have locked themselves in because of mindset, thus requiring mega-expensive, poor-quality software be purchased.
Why do so few people try to make a comprehensive image processing application that can compete with the Shop? Because they know that nobody would buy it anyway. Professionals have this idea in their head that if it's not Photoshop, you can't use it or people will laugh at you and kill your dog.
And to top it all off, Adobe is arrogant. They got to the top by selling a good product to people who used the Macintosh. Now they're just reaming you because they have you as a captive audience.