blu ray vs. time vs. price

I live in Canada and as the loonie goes down in relation to the dollar, there is speculation that businesses here will start adjusting their prices soon to reflect the difference between the two currencies. that means that right NOW I can buy a MacBook Pro and pay less than what a person in the US would pay, but that I dont know for how long this will hold true.

however as you all know this generation of macs did not include blu ray. i dont know if its a good idea to buy a MBP, which is a pretty long term investment, at the moment, considering that a blu ray drive might be an essential component in a couple of years from now (assumption of mine, might be false, it may take years or months, who knows, before this happens). On the other hand, if I wait till the next release of MBPs, hoping that those will include Blu ray (and probably they will), prices might have adjusted by then and I may not be able to afford a MBP at all. The advice I need then is, should I buy now (cheap price but no blu ray in my main computer for the next 5 years) or wait (probable price adjustment in Canada, cant afford MBP and would have to settle for MB)? Extra information that makes a difference: Im an information systems student to graduate in a year, so I probably will need a strong computer, one with better graphic capabilities than the MB, to do my work.

(Just by posting my question I see that the answer might be buy now. The question then is, how much time will it be till blu ray completely takes over DVD and becomes the standard in the Information Systems industry?)

I know its a tough one, but any piece of advice is appreciated.

Who really knows what will be an essential component in 2, 3, or 5 years? If you can purchase a MBP now while the Canadian dollar is at a high point compared to the US dollar, then now is the time to buy. You can always purchase an external Blue Ray drive at some time in the future.

Regards.

jats said:

(Just by posting my question I see that the answer might be buy now. The question then is, how much time will it be till blu ray completely takes over DVD and becomes the standard in the Information Systems industry?)

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BluRay comprises less than 8% of the market right now (and, by the current market analysis, it looks to be either holding steady or dropping slightly, not increasing). We have had this discussion many times on this forum in the last week or so, and the consensus is mostly that IF BluRay does take off, it will take a while. That is an if though, as there are no major advantages to the format bar media size, which at this current point in time, is not enough to do anything. Not to mention that I have read about horrible licensing issues by Sony, since it is their technology. Now, 5 years down the road, it is POSSIBLE that it will be the new format, but what are you going to do, wait 5 years to get a Mac? I agree with the previous poster, get it now, while you can get it cheap, and if it becomes the standard, hook up an external BluRay drive to that FireWire 800 port on the Pro (or an eSATA Expresscard possibly).

alright thanks for the advice

I really don't think there are any real indicators that BluRay will ever overtake DVDs. The technology may skip over BluRay entirely.

Think about it... Music CDs have been made all but obsolete in favor of digital playlists which are downloaded. When a new album comes out, we no longer think in terms of purchasing a physical disc that we carry around. Why should movies be any different? 5 years from now, Blockbuster may completely abandon the rental of physical discs at storefronts in favor of sending out movies for download. They are already starting to head in that direction now. Apple is as well.

If BluRay doesn't become the dominant movie format of choice, why should it become the media disc of choice? I think it's more likely that the movie industry will follow the lead of the music industry, and the computer manufacturers will follow suit. After all, the CD-ROM didn't become the standard until after the CD was the standard for the music industry.

5 years from now the available bandwidth may be so great, you may very well be downloading OS 15 from the Apple website. MobileMe may give you 20 terabytes of storage space which you will use to hold your entire software collection which you download on demand. The MBA already has no CD drive. That could very well become the norm for all PCs.

(Maybe a little off the subject, but interesting to speculate on what direction things may take.)

there isn't enough bandwidth in the world at this point to deliver all the media people consume on a daily basis with the level of fidelity that the BD format delivers. Then again, I'd say that downloading mp3's is still far behind CD sales in volume as well.

Dysfunction said:

there isn't enough bandwidth in the world at this point to deliver all the media people consume on a daily basis with the level of fidelity that the BD format delivers. Then again, I'd say that downloading mp3's is still far behind CD sales in volume as well.

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This is probably dependent on where you get your numbers from, what countries you are counting etc. Personally, and this is coming from someone who hates using vicarious experience as a descriptor of anything, I don't know anyone who still buys CDs. And that includes some of the older generations like my father who is a baby boomer.

While there isn't enough bandwidth now, I have to agree that I believe that the next big format will be downloadable media, and not a new hard format. I would much rather download a movie or music then drive out to the store and buy it (if they even have it), and tons of companies are starting to offer this more and more. I agree that right now we are not at the level that we need to be to support the mass amount of bandwidth that it would need, but if you look at the OP, he is talking about 5-10 years from now.

I believe Steve Jobs addressed this in the keynote, correct me if im wrong. But he said that apple would not put Blue-Ray players into their computers until the price came down and they were more widely used. After that its all speculation as to when they will be included.