How long do you think until 2nd gen. and/or price drop?

[pruppert]

Ok, I know I'm a bit premature here, but I was trying to estimate how long it might be before a 2nd generation of the iPhone or a substantial price drop occurred.

Using the iPod as a guide, does anyone remember how long the 1st generation iPod was out until its 2nd gen. or a price drop occurred? Thanks.

 

[D3v1L80Y]

Ok, I know I'm a bit premature here, but I was trying to estimate how long it might be before a 2nd generation of the iPhone

Probably a few months

or a substantial price drop.

Not likely to happen anytime in the near or even semi-distant future.

 

[mathogre]

A 2nd gen iPhone... I'll offer my uneducated guess.

The iPhone represents many things:

• connection to the phone system
• collaboration with an outside company, namely AT&T
• business risk
• technological risk
• consumer smart phone

I could continue, but those are some of the top points. Fan frenzy notwithstanding, Apple needs to sell lots of iPhones for the product line to succeed. This isn't just an iPod or some next gen Mac. It's a phone that's more a generalized computer. A big blunder with the iPhone could quickly be its end.

So far the iPhone has done nothing particularly untoward. Yeah, people carp about the slow EDGE network and a few missing features. Overall the launch has been a success.

I'd guess the first thing we'll see are general updates to the iPhone s/w (via iTunes). They need to prove that the update process works and does nothing to harm the phone network. This would imply that there will be little tolerance for s/w bugs, at least at first.

Next - hopefully - we'll see a new icon or two for new functions. It's a computer! They can add features via s/w (updates via iTunes) and maintain the same platform. Eventually we could see lists of functions not unlike the "More" selection in the iPod section of the iPhone. In other words, we could have more functions available to us than we have screen space for their icons. Pick and choose what fits for you and keep the others in the background!

Maybe a 2nd gen device isn't that far away. Still, I'd consider a July '08 release to be ambitious and a July '09 release to be very conservative. Even then I'd guess it would be more a 1.5 gen type device at first, characterized by expanded memory and enhancements for things that don't otherwise work as well as they might.

Just my thoughts.

 

[kaidomac]

Probably a few months

I seriously doubt that a 2nd release of the iPhone will come in a few months. First of all, that would really tick off current iPhone owners. 3 months and it's outdated? No way. Second, cell phone manufacturers rarely release a "sequel" within a year of initial release. Just look at the Razr, the Q, or the Chocolate. Third, Apple usually only updates their products once a year or so. So based on previous release history, industry release statistics, and not wanting to alienate customers, I don't think that Apple will release a new phone until next year at the earliest.

Although, I would be happy to be proven wrong Also, if they were to make an iPhone Nano, October would be a good release date with Leopard and all. You know, along with the MacBook Pro ultraportable and the Cube 2, aka Gamer's Mac Mini. And Mac Pro Lite tower. Sigh.

 

[coach_z]

i would expect tons of software improvements and bug fixes and maybe a new app or two all that can get updated from itunes, but a new generation? i say a year or two
-chris

 

[cheez]

i agree with u coach.
U guys already thinking about 2nd gen iPhones?
sounds weird to meh!

 

[diesel828]

My guess is the 2nd gen. will be released in 8-12 months. As far as price, it's not going to get any cheaper. I think the history of other Apple products will tell us that.

 

[speed4tu]

Like diesel828, I don't think the price will come down. Although I am hoping that they release a 3g model. I might consider getting one if they will ever do this. I visit 3g places occasionally and I would really miss the 3g. Guess I will have to stick with my cheap razr v3xx that picks it up. haha

 

[iRye]

Me thinks MWSF08.

 

[pruppert]

Thanks for the input guys. I think what you all say makes sense.

The only reason I ask is because my current contract with Verizon doesn't run out until January '08, and I was just daydreaming about how cool it would be if the iPhone's memory but especially battery life had been upgraded by then.

With that time frame in mind, I'm guessing it would be wise to at least wait until after Macworld '08 before getting one.