03-13-2010, 06:31 AM

Would be good for  if these statistics are true, and if they are it might quiet down those non believers lol
Its interesting if anything else

25 000 pre-orders per hour

03-13-2010, 09:49 AM

Merged Duplicate threads.

03-13-2010, 07:25 PM

im skeptical of these statistics. For one they are based on order numbers, which include everything else in the mac store, and secondly they rely on the assumption that the order numbers start at zero.

What the claim basically say is "if all of our assumptions are correct this is how many things apple sold today, And some of the things sold were ipads"

03-13-2010, 08:57 PM

The Apple Store is not currently taking pre-orders on anything else I'm aware of, so tracking the order numbers is in fact a pretty good way to judge.

They are way up over 100,000 now. My personal predictions are that they will move 1M units within the first three months of availability and 3M before year's end.

03-13-2010, 10:32 PM

Even your 1M units is only 0.33% of the US population. (that's if you go of USA = 300M people). And if you take into account some people will buy multiple ipads. it's a little less than 0.33% of USA own an ipad within the first 3 months and that increases to 1% in a year.

So by your prediction at years end a It'll be a touch less then 1 out of every hundred US people will own an ipad.

03-13-2010, 11:57 PM

Yeah, so what's your point?

Only about 20M iPod Touches have been sold so far, and it's been out for 2.5 years (and is available pretty much worldwide). The iPad will do AT LEAST that well -- I would expect them to sell no less than 5M units by the iPad's first anniversary, probably closer to 10M.

Are you suggesting the iPod Touch has been a flop?

03-14-2010, 12:53 AM

wow, your "prediction" has increased over three fold in the space of three hours. Was there any thought behind that or was it entirely because nobody was impressed with your previous prediction?

03-14-2010, 01:15 AM

Originally Posted by kbOx

wow, your "prediction" has increased over three fold in the space of three hours. Was there any thought behind that or was it entirely because nobody was impressed with your previous prediction?

Actually, his prediction didn't increase so much.

He said:

1m within first 3 mo, 3m by years end - not the anniversary. The anniversary would be an additional 4 months as it's being released in April, so that would be another 2m units on the low end between dec 2010 and april 2011. So for the first full year that the ipad would be out chas_m is guestimating 5m - 10m units sold. Might be a bit high, might be low, could be that it falls somewhere smack in the middle. But, his estimate hasn't increased 3 fold...

03-14-2010, 01:19 AM

Wow with the negativity I thought the members would be pleased with the success.
Here is one link to projected sales. Day 1 estimate: 120,000 iPads sold - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

03-14-2010, 03:34 AM

Originally Posted by Nethfel

Actually, his prediction didn't increase so much.

He said:

1m within first 3 mo, 3m by years end - not the anniversary. The anniversary would be an additional 4 months as it's being released in April, so that would be another 2m units on the low end between dec 2010 and april 2011. So for the first full year that the ipad would be out chas_m is guestimating 5m - 10m units sold. Might be a bit high, might be low, could be that it falls somewhere smack in the middle. But, his estimate hasn't increased 3 fold...

It has increased significantly, then.

03-14-2010, 03:51 AM

I sort of don't want to rush to the 1st gen iPad. Like most of Apple products there would be second gen coming very quickly and probably be better and more polished....but then again, I need something like iPad! (I still would like a fine line stylus so I could use it as a notepad at my lectures etc).

03-14-2010, 04:50 AM

Originally Posted by kbOx

It has increased significantly, then.

No, it didn't change at all ... you just didn't read it very closely.

What I said was:

1M in the first three months of availability.

3M by year's end (that's December in case you don't have a calendar handy).

In my second post, I predicted they will have sold *at least* 5M by the iPad's anniversary (April 3, 2011). This is just a natural expectation following on from the prediction of 3M by year's end.

As I said in my second post, I think I'm being conservative with my estimates, and they may well do even better than 5M units in the first year. But 5M units would be roughly on par with how well the iPod Touch did in its first year.

Another way to express the above prediction would be to say that I think the iPad will do at least as well as the iPod Touch did in its first year. Whether you think that constitutes the iPad being a "hit" or not depends on whether you think the iPod Touch was successful or not.

I hope that clarifies my position for you.

03-14-2010, 04:58 AM

you said "probably closer to ten million" sales in the first year.

Or are you just trying to use as many numbers as you can to hedge your bets? Basically, now, you can claim to be right if they sell anything from 3 million in 8 months to ten million in a year, quite a margin of error you have manufactured for yourself there.

03-14-2010, 05:35 AM

[QUOTE=kbOx;1017632Basically, now, you can claim to be right if they sell anything from 3 million in 8 months to ten million in a year, quite a margin of error you have manufactured for yourself there.[/QUOTE]

To be blunt, your reading comprehension is very poor.

03-14-2010, 07:00 AM

Originally Posted by chas_m

Yeah, so what's your point?

Touchy touchy. Gee someone's in a defensive mood today.
I was just saying the numbers as a % of the entire population. And if you think about it, if 1/100 people own anything that's a pretty huge number. it meand no matter where you go you're likely to bump into someone who has one. I didn't day that is bad. I think it's good. You only assumed incorrectly I thought that was bad.