No, it didn't change at all ... you just didn't read it very closely.

What I said was:

1M in the first three months of availability.

3M by year's end (that's December in case you don't have a calendar handy).

In my second post, I predicted they will have sold *at least* 5M by the iPad's anniversary (April 3, 2011). This is just a natural expectation following on from the prediction of 3M by year's end.

As I said in my second post, I think I'm being conservative with my estimates, and they may well do even better than 5M units in the first year. But 5M units would be roughly on par with how well the iPod Touch did in its first year.

Another way to express the above prediction would be to say that I think the iPad will do at least as well as the iPod Touch did in its first year. Whether you think that constitutes the iPad being a "hit" or not depends on whether you think the iPod Touch was successful or not.

I hope that clarifies my position for you.