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pigoo3
06-24-2016, 01:04 PM
We usually try not to get too political at Mac-Forums. But being a curious person…considering the impact on world financial markets...and considering that we have a pretty sizable Mac-Forums membership from the UK & Commonweath Countries. Would love to hear folks thoughts (pro's & con's) regarding the UK's vote to leave the EU.

Thanks,

- Nick

p.s. Please be nice.:) I know it's probably a pretty sensitive topic.

Slydude
06-24-2016, 01:17 PM
I've only recently started following this issue. It would not surprise me though if this is just the beginning.

I heard something yesterday that it could take as much as two years ti actually implement this and that during that time opinions may change. I don''t think so. In fact, it would not surprise me if other nations follow suit. Even if other nations remain a British withdrawal from the issue creates problems for the EU from both a perception standpoint and because of the size of their economy.

toMACsh
06-24-2016, 01:49 PM
Time will tellif this will really mess things up for Great Britain ("Lesser" Britain if Scotland breaks away?) In the short term, certainly there will be much turmoil from this action.

McBie
06-24-2016, 02:10 PM
People who voted to " LEAVE " made a very big mistake.
The younger generation(s) will suffer big time and they did not even have a choice !
The older generations ( who voted to LEAVE ) should now pick up their responsibility to help the younger people.
Also look at the geographical spread of the LEAVE voters ..... and map that to the economical geography in the UK...... nuff said.
A 2nd referendum of the Scottish wanting to become independent is already on the table.

In summary .... bad outcome of an unneeded gamble by Mr. Cameron.

I' m pretty sure that The Clash and The Sex Pistols will have a few words to say on this.

Cheers ... McBie

chscag
06-24-2016, 02:10 PM
My opinion: The UK has taken the first step to gain back its sovereignty. The UK is a great nation and doesn't need the EU as I believe the future will show. As for the world markets, they'll calm down after a bit; hey, now is a good time to buy that stock you've been eying. ;D

McBie
06-24-2016, 02:19 PM
Hmmmm ..... keep an eye on the unemployment rate for the next 2 years .... not good.
Take count of the number of multinationals that will relocate their headquarters out of the UK.
I don't want to be too negative so this is indeed the right moment to buy stock ..... wait a few more days and watch the currency :-)
This will have a ripple effect across the global economy I tell you.

Cheers ... McBie

XJ-linux
06-24-2016, 02:46 PM
I can't say whether it will work out for the better or not. I can speculate that, in a country where wealth inequality is on par with the US, folks at the bottom didn't see EU membership as a positive thing. Right or wrong, the messaging didn't reach them in a way that mattered enough. What was sold as a simple trade organization grew exponentially into something that they saw as undemocratic, unrepresentative, and bearing responsibility for ruining their lives, whether that's the actual case or not.

When you don't care about not standing in line at the borders to travel to Belguim for holiday, because you can't afford to travel anyway... touting that as a positive when you have to compete in the real world with new immigrants for government housing, NHS access, crowding in schools, etc... Who cares if your pension is portable to France when you don't have a pension and can't really retire anyhow?

pigoo3
06-24-2016, 03:45 PM
I think one of the big fears of an outcome like this…is other countries citizens who may not be happy with the EU arrangement may also try to "vote to leave". Which could (worst case) snowball into a complete collapse of the EU.

Many times folks think that the grass is greener on the other side of the fence. Then once they get there…they realize that the "grass" on the other side is not so great after all. It's very possible that EU or no EU…the average folks may not win either way. The only folks who win are the politicians who pushed for the change. If the change doesn't work out…they get voted out of office…return to their "day-jobs"…and leave each country a mess.

Consider this. What were the "Pro's & Con's" for each EU country BEFORE the EU? If staying independent was the better way …the EU probably would have never been formed. If the EU breaks up…we may be back to each country having it's own currency…and more hassles traveling between countries.

If things go really well for the UK…then other countries will want to leave the EU too. If things don't go so well for the UK…then the EU has a great chance of staying unified. It's possible the UK may be playing Guinea Pig in this experiment.

It's of course a very complex situation.

- Nick

harryb2448
06-24-2016, 06:28 PM
Let them do what they wish.

Australia, Canada and New Zealand in particular supported the UK prior to the EU move and we had to find other markets for grains, sugar, meat, dairy etc. which took many years developing Asian markets. And in my book the EU is pretty unstable with the financial problems in a number of member countries. Think it was different when NATO was required to be strong but not now. France, Germany, Spain, Belgium etc all gained more from the EU than the UK.

And multinationals will not move to Europe. Cayman and British Virgin Islands etc for sure!!!

RavingMac
06-24-2016, 07:04 PM
I have no clue whether leaving the EU will be good for the average Brit, but anything that causes turmoil is generally an opportunity for the well-connected and wealthy to make a killing. So, I suspect the ultimate end will be greater wealth and income disparity, not less.

Sawday
06-24-2016, 07:09 PM
It's was quite clear watching our BBC news that the ones voting to leave the EU were at the very thick end of the intellectual scale. These stupid delusional morons have caused the worse thing that has happened in my 60 years. Ashamed of the lot of them. Even their 'leaders' the t*** Farage and clown Boris have said today that what they said in the run up to the referendum were actually lies. You truely couldn't make it up - except they did!

pigoo3
06-24-2016, 07:15 PM
It's was quite clear watching our BBC news that the ones voting to leave the EU were at the very thick end of the intellectual scale.

Here in the US I think that we're having exactly the same issue with upcoming presidential elections!:(

- Nick

harryb2448
06-24-2016, 08:07 PM
Dat's dem politicians guys! Alas the problem is world wide.......

We have a billionairre as Prime Minister and all the government seems to want is to privatise everything. Would you believe the port of Darwin, our northern frontier close to Indonesia and Asia has been leased for 99 years .. to the Peoples Republic of China no less!

IWT
06-25-2016, 05:30 AM
I neither wish to say how I voted nor should I ever want to tell others how to vote. I am Scottish, British, European and proud to be all three.

The saddest thing is that after 40+ years, politicians of all parties shades and opinions, both in the UK and continental Europe have made such a mess of things that a referendum became necessary at all.

The original idea was for what was called, rightly, a Common Market. Open trading between nations without tariffs and restrictive practices. This “matured” over the years into a political machine whereby unelected officials sought to determine policy across the EU that was both executive and legislative, overriding individual Nations’ sovereignty, security and culture. This brought benefits, common purposes; but also restrictions on the way each country ran their economy and, in many ways, robbed Nations of their individuality.

There was never going to be a winner in what should have been an unnecessary referendum. Whether people voted to remain or leave, both are losers. And now, people from several other countries are reviewing their position.

But I’m an optimist. We all need each other and eventually trade and respect for each others’ uniqueness will prevail.

The outcome; well as I’ve often said, predictions are really difficult, particularly about the future.

Ian

techiesteve
06-25-2016, 09:24 AM
I voted to remain. I suspect a fair percentage of those voting out believed so much of the populist garbage and lies that was being spouted. The EC is far from perfect, but at this stage pulling out will leave us all far worse off. Additional, it's highly likely that if a trade deal is struck to avoid or reduce tariffs on exports to the EC, there will be conditions applied similar to those that Brexit claimed an out vote would get rid of. The fact that the financial sector has no confidence in withdrawal the pound dropped drastically as did stock values. I take my pension soon and realise the fund will be significantly reduced. Also the fact that prime minister cameron isn't going to officially start the withdrawal, leaving it to his replacement, and this could be many months away. If the pound and stocks recover, we will probably take a much bigger hit than previously when we officially start the withdrawal process. Already there is resentment with EC member states, no surprise after comments made during the campaign. The Calais authorities want to remove UK customs officers from France, they have been vetting refugees, and refusing entry at the ferry port. If this goes ahead I can see more problems with refugees caught in the middle of the dispute. In time, and too late, the majority of the Brexit supporters may see they made the wrong decision. The wealthy Brexit leaders who made their decision on ideological grounds have the funds to still leave a good life and ride out the mess.

Re Scotland voting solidly to remain, were I resident in Scotland, I too would would support another independence referendum. I suspect many who previously voted to remain in the UK will now change sides. The UK government realises this, and will fight tooth and nail to ensure a referendum never takes place. More divisions within our society.

With the pound dropping in value it will be interesting to see if the cost of Apple kit and spare parts rise, now we are back on track and talking about Mac items.

It's early days yet for what lays before us in the UK.

IWT
06-25-2016, 11:37 AM
Steve,

You address the issues with the same thoughtfulness and clarity you put into your posts to this Form.

My post above was the best I could do to present a close-to-neutral submission which did not favour one view over another, but perhaps conveyed some of the complex issues for the benefit our North American and Southern Hemisphere friends — although I suspect that they are probably far bettered versed in these matters than we give them credit for.

As I said, I am Scottish, British and European. I decided not to convey my vote in order to escape some of the poisonous remarks that have filled a few Facebook pages and other quarters — very gladly, not at all on these Forums! We are supposed to be living in a democracy after all and a 77% turnout (more than twice that usually achieved in a general election) is democracy of which, as a nation, we can be proud - even if the result is not to our liking. I am an optimist.

Ian

harryb2448
06-25-2016, 06:23 PM
Probably just the beginning of it all coming asunder.

Clamouring starting in France now for a referendum.

toMACsh
06-26-2016, 08:35 AM
... and in Britain for a re-vote!

I fear it's going to create a mess, and be worse than if the vote was to remain. (In other words, worse than it had been, economically at least, from the time the Union was formed )

lclev
06-26-2016, 04:50 PM
I have no way of actually having first hand knowledge as to how this brexit vote will affect the average person living/working in England. My heart does go out to the average person that will in the end reap the results of this or any future decisions.

From what I have read and gathered immigration played a big part along with other regulations that removed a feeling of control over what people felt should be an individual country's decision. I see a lot of validity in that. But the level of trade and commerce that is so interwoven among the countries in the EU had a lot of positive factors too. The economic ramifications will be far reaching. I do hope and pray there are some smart people at the ready to guide the country in a positive way.

I guess what I found myself relating to was techiesteve's remarks that he will be taking his pension soon. That really hit home for me. My husband and I made a decision when we first got married to put as much as was allowed into a retirement fund. We lived conservatively so we could have a decent retirement. And then came 9/11. The stock market tanked and our retirement fund dropped to - well I will just say, it was a lot. It took a long time for our retirement fund to rebuild. When we finally did retire the best I can say is we were slightly above what we had originally put in over all those years. Don't get me wrong, I am happy at least we got back our original investment plus a little more. But we had envisioned something more.

The brexit vote will go down in England's history as either the biggest debacle or the best decision ever made. Only time will tell.

Lisa

Slydude
06-26-2016, 05:49 PM
Decisions such as this one usually take somme time before the true, long-term, economic implications are known. There are already some, looking at the short term numbers, are talking about this as though it was the worst decision in Britain's history. The reality is that, for better or worse, the true economic ramifications won't be known for a while.

I think you are quite right Lisa that significant factor in this vote may have been the perceived loss of control over many decisions. It could also be said that many people didn't see themselves as gaining the economic benefit that membership in the EU was supposed to bring.

Sawday
06-26-2016, 06:12 PM
I'd hate to leave Yorkshire but Scotland is looking rather enticing. Have today sent off for details to six Scottish estate agents requesting house details. Forres here we come (maybe).

pigoo3
06-26-2016, 07:19 PM
I'd hate to leave Yorkshire but Scotland is looking rather enticing. Have today sent off for details to six Scottish estate agents requesting house details. Forres here we come (maybe).

If other folks have the same idea…you may be in a long queue!;)

- Nick

MacInWin
06-26-2016, 10:35 PM
Before you head to Scotland, you might want to look at the Wikipedia article on their Economy that I found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Economic_Performance

In part it said:
Scotland has 8.4% of the UK population, 32% of the land mass and in 2012–2013 generated 9.1% (53.1bn) of UK tax revenues, and received 9.3% (65.2bn) of UK spending back from Westminster.[86][87] In 2012–2013, this amounted to a budget deficit of 8.3% of GDP, higher than the UK's overall budget deficit for the same period of 7.3% of GDP.[86] In 2014–15, the Scottish figure worsened to 9.7%, while the overall UK figure was 4.9%.[88]
In the third quarter of 2015, the Scottish economy grew by 0.1%, below the 0.4% recorded for the UK.[89] As of September 2015, the Scottish unemployment rate of 5.9% was above the UK rate of 5.5%, while the Scottish employment rate of 74.0% was higher than the UK figure of 73.5%.[90]If I read that properly, if Scotland goes independent of the rest of the UK, the overall economy will be worse than it is now, while the rest of UK will improve. Just saying...

IWT
06-27-2016, 05:20 AM
I'd hate to leave Yorkshire but Scotland is looking rather enticing. Have today sent off for details to six Scottish estate agents requesting house details. Forres here we come (maybe).

Try Nairn. Fabulous town. On the Moray Firth. Overall, great weather. We had wonderful holidays there.

Ian

Dysfunction
06-27-2016, 06:33 AM
Before you head to Scotland, you might want to look at the Wikipedia article on their Economy that I found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Economic_Performance

In part it said:If I read that properly, if Scotland goes independent of the rest of the UK, the overall economy will be worse than it is now, while the rest of UK will improve. Just saying...

All this depends on what happens to the UK economy in the wake of the Brexit. It also depends on if this actually occurs (Article 50, I do not believe, has been enacted yet). Then again, even if it has.. the article really only forces negotiation on the EU side (although, not the UK).

Basically, everything is still up in the air. That all said, since I no longer live either in Europe or the UK.. I've only paid passing attention :D

MacInWin
06-27-2016, 12:02 PM
All this depends on what happens to the UK economy in the wake of the Brexit. It also depends on if this actually occurs (Article 50, I do not believe, has been enacted yet). Then again, even if it has.. the article really only forces negotiation on the EU side (although, not the UK).

Basically, everything is still up in the air. That all said, since I no longer live either in Europe or the UK.. I've only paid passing attention :DTrue enough, but just on the face of it, if Scotland goes independent and keeps the budget where it is right now, the average increase in taxes to the Scottish will be about 2400 per annum per person. And if, like the US, 47% don't pay any taxes, that will effectively double on the folks who DO pay taxes to 4800 per annum per person. So a family of four whose income earner pays taxes will see an increase in taxes of about 8000-16000 per annum. Or Scotland will have to make serious cuts in domestic spending much like Greece did. Based on that analysis, I'm not sure EU will accept Scotland as a member. Germany doesn't want to have to finance another Greece.

So basically, if Scotland departs UK, then the tax situation will get very interesting, even if England's economy goes down.

Oh, and the taxpayers in UK will be better off because they have stopped subsidizing both the EU and Scotland. I read that UK is now contributing 20bn per annum to EU, and from the article I cited the net deficit to Scotland is 12bn, so the savings to the UK leaving EU and Scotland declaring independence will be 32bn/annually. That's about 533 per person per annum. So, a family of four in Scotland will see taxes increase by 8000 - 16000 and a family of four in UK will see taxes decrease by 2200 over that same timespan.

I don't live there either, but I don't think the "doom and gloom" predictions are valid, and I don't think, presented the numbers I just showed you, that the Scottish are willing to give up that much just for Scottish independence. Maybe they will, but it won't be a coldly logical decision. It will be nationalistic. And it will cost them dearly to make the move.

EDIT: Corrected a math problem...

badshoehabit
06-27-2016, 01:49 PM
I am gutted at the result and upset at the ugly mood amongst some leavers. Despite where I live and my age profile, I voted to remain because I weighed the economic consequences and believe the UK is stronger within the EU than outside and that many of the country's institutions will fail without people who have settled here from other countries.

The result has pitched us into political and economic turmoil with both major parties imploding, international companies saying they will quit Britain and banks being suspended temporarily from the stock market because of share falls. The leave leaders straightaway backtracked on vital issues such as money for the NHS (see first link) and immigrant numbers and, hard to believe, some leave voters are claiming they didn't think their vote would count!

I feel the 'out' campaign appealed to the anti-immigration crowd in the basest manner possible (see second link to poster, which featured a photo of Syrian asylum seekers who have nothing to do with the EU). EU, other passport holders and non-white Brits are facing calls to go, and go now - shades of Trump or what? My young cousin, living here for 20 years on an Irish passport, got into a discussion with a supposed friend who voted leave believing 'we have to look after our own'. She said it was like a slap in the face.

Such a mess.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-admits-wont-extra-8271594

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farages-anti-immigrant-poster-reported-to-police-over-claims-it-incites-racial-hatred-a7087801.html